Chairperson of the Aspen Institute Kyiv Supervisory Board Natalie Jaresko: “To end the war means to help Ukraine prevail in the war”

Natalie Jaresko is Chairperson of the Aspen Institute Kyiv Supervisory Board and was Ukraine’s Minister of Finance from 2014 to 2016. She was a speaker at the third #UkrainianDialogue, which Aspen Institute Kyiv held with Aspen Institute France. Natalie spoke on why the world should urgently help Ukraine prevail in the war.

To end the war means to help Ukraine prevail in the war

A global response is extremely urgent and the continuation of the Russian-Ukrainian war will have greater consequences in the future than the cost of helping Ukraine today, Natalie said.

— What the global economy is faced with is the result of the continuation of this war, without urgent action to end the war, supply of military support, and no urgency to create more sanctions to isolate the Russian economy. To end the war means to help Ukraine prevail in the war.

Every day this war continues, the cost to the rest of the world is much greater than the cost of helping Ukraine now

Natalie explained what a 50 percent decline in the Ukrainian economy means for the world. People should start thinking not only about the changes in commodity prices but also about the supply chain — which had already been damaged by COVID-19 — and as a consequence of the war,  will be damaged even further, she said.

— People have forgotten over time the incredibly crucial role Ukraine plays in the global economy. The 50 percent decline in the Ukrainian economy means food supply challenges. And we have to think about the food insecurities this will bring. Much of this is going to be felt in the emerging markets of northern Africa and the Middle East.

The economic consequences that people focus on are in the areas of  agriculture, natural gas, and gasoline, however, there is much more to consider, Natalie said.

— Ukraine has the second-largest source of titanium in Europe, and it directly impacts airplane production. It includes Airbus and Boeing which cover all of the global airline travel. Moreover, we need to talk about iron and uranium ores. Every day this war continues, the cost to the rest of the world is much greater than the cost of helping Ukraine now.

The more destruction that occurs in Ukraine, the more it will cost the world to rebuild Ukraine

Every day this war continues, the cost to the world becomes much greater tomorrow than the cost of helping Ukraine today. While newspapers focus on bombing in eastern Ukraine, in fact, Russia is bombing all of Ukraine, Natalie said.

— The more destruction occurs in Ukraine, the more it will cost the world to rebuild Ukraine. They have bombed airports, railway links, fuel, and medicine depots around the whole country. Moreover, Russia has closed access to the ports, and Ukraine is a major exporter. 

Many estimates for Ukraine’s reconstruction have been produced, but could be wrong by tomorrow because the destruction continues daily, Natalie said.

— There are all kinds of estimates today that have been provided by the Kyiv School of Economics. The Prime Minister has talked about damages of $500  billion. But the damage continues daily. So the number I give you today will be wrong tomorrow. I bring my experience from Puerto Rico. After the hurricanes four years ago, the damage was estimated to be worth approximately $100 billion. Puerto Rico is 1/66 the size of Ukraine. The damage in Ukraine to the residential buildings and infrastructure has occurred in many cities. Mariupol is 80 or more percent destroyed.

The question of Ukraine’s victory in the Russian-Ukrainian war not only has a bearing on the world economy and the security of the Baltics and Poland. It also has a broader implication on whether the world accepts the legitimacy of an autocrat or  tyrant using military force to exert power over his neighbors. This question has a bearing on Asia and Africa. It also concerns the future of nuclear non-proliferation. 

Aspen Institute Kyiv launched the #UkrainianDialogue project in cooperation with Aspen Network international partners. Its goal is to create a platform for leadership dialogue between Ukrainians who fight for democratic values and other countries’ representatives that support Ukraine.